CNMI Ferry System Assessment

Client: Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
Service: Market Research & Feasibility Analysis
Sector: Transportation & Infrastructure

The Challenge

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) was considering whether a new ferry system could provide a viable sea link among its islands and the regional hub serving them.

The need for better connectivity was clear. Limited air service to the outer islands meant residents faced premium fares for essential travel, including medical appointments, education, and family obligations. Freight options were similarly constrained, with growers relying on air service to move perishable produce because no dependable maritime alternative existed.

What remained unclear was whether that need would translate into sufficient demand for a ferry service.

With no comparable operating history in the market, there was little evidence from which to forecast actual ridership. Expressions of support for improved connectivity could not, on their own, justify substantial public investment in vessels, berthing infrastructure, and potential operating subsidies.

The feasibility effort therefore needed to answer a more consequential question: Who would use the service, under what conditions, and at what price?

The Approach

MR&D led the market research component of a broader ferry feasibility and master planning effort, designing the study to measure potential demand rather than simply gauge public opinion.

Four distinct populations were surveyed using methods tailored to how each group could best be reached. Departing travelers at both international gateways were intercepted and invited to complete surveys on their own devices at the gate. Residents of the two most populous islands were surveyed through random-digit-dial telephone research, while a near-census telephone survey reached the commercial farming community on one outer island whose export economy could be directly affected by the proposed service.

Approximately 1,500 survey responses were collected. Each sample was benchmarked against the most recent decennial census, with demographic deviations identified and disclosed rather than obscured through adjustment.

MR&D supplemented the quantitative research with 60 stakeholder interviews spanning transportation operations, regulation, tourism, and economic development. Focus groups on the two smallest islands provided additional insight from communities too small to register meaningfully in territory-wide samples.

Critically, willingness to use the ferry was tested against specific fares and travel times. This allowed the feasibility team to distinguish general enthusiasm for improved transportation from demand under realistic operating conditions.

The Outcome

The research identified meaningful potential demand for ferry service—but also showed that its viability would depend heavily on how the system was designed and priced.

Interest remained strong when ferry fares were positioned at approximately half the cost of flying, but declined sharply as fares approached air-travel prices. Fare level therefore emerged as a fundamental design constraint rather than a commercial decision to be made after the system was developed.

The findings also supported a phased approach to implementation. MR&D recommended beginning with shorter, more sheltered crossings where higher service frequency and stronger projected load factors could help establish operating credibility before expanding to longer routes.

Vehicle and freight capacity emerged as another central consideration. The ability to transport vehicles and cargo was the strongest motivator identified among residents, while the surveyed farming population indicated it would use the service. Freight capacity could also provide an additional revenue stream to help offset seasonal fluctuations in passenger demand.

MR&D produced route-level passenger and vehicle load estimates to support vessel sizing and scheduling decisions. Additional recommendations included coordinating ferry departures with arriving flights, packaging ferry and air travel through destination marketing organizations, and resolving customs, biosecurity, and berthing requirements before service launch.

The result was a market-based foundation for determining not simply whether a ferry system was desirable, but the conditions under which it could attract sustained use.

At a Glance

1,500+
Approximate surveys collected

60 Interviews
Industry perspectives gathered

4 Survey Populations
Departing Travelers, Residents of 2 Major Islands, & Farmers

MR&D Capabilities Demonstrated

Survey • Stakeholder & Community Engagement • Feasibility Study • Qualitative Research • Quantitative Research